p(doom) calculator

My p(doom) calculator is playable in a browser: https://will9371.itch.io/probability-calculator (password is xrisk). It's a bit buggy, but it works, and includes an example preset with my own (quick, not highly considered) estimations. I want to get some feedback on it before sharing with broader audiences so let me know what you think in the comments! Also, I have limited time to work on this, so let me know if you would like to help in any way (technical or non-technical)!

itch.io

Probability Calculator by Will9371

Boolean logic based probability calculator with a mind-map style UI. A browser tool made in HTML5

dual-salmonOP•1/3/24, 10:35 PM

One thing that would be especially helpful would be for someone to create an exceptionally detailed and thought-out model and send me the save file so that I can include it as a preset.

Feedback I am most looking for:
- Ways to make the application easier to use and understand (without sacrificing functionality)
- Better terminology & text to use for instructions.
- Bug reports

dual-salmonOP•1/9/24, 1:55 AM

I've updated the calculator with some minor bugfixes and made the project publicly available. I have also filmed a new explanation video: https://youtu.be/JdHeCrmeWr8

I'd like to post this to LessWrong for added visibility, but want to get in some more bugfixes, UI improvements, and presets before then, so please let me know if you have any feedback or interesting saved model files

YouTubeWill Petillo

Probability Calculator with node-based UI

Demonstration of my general-purpose probability calculator, using the Drake Equation and p(doom) from AI as examples. I am looking for feedback regarding whether I should take this further, so please comment if you like/dislike this idea or have suggestions!

(Text is fuzzy as a result of the video editing process, it's much clearer in the appl...

hurt-tomato•1/9/24, 1:55 PM

Great job on this!

Hhurt-tomato Great job on this!

dual-salmonOP•1/9/24, 9:26 PM

Thanks! If you get the chance to play around with it, I'd especially like to include your p(doom) estimate in the preset list, as representative of PauseAI.

awake-maroon•1/15/24, 12:56 PM

Cool idea! I think a browser-based p(doom) calculator with a ~universally recognized model and a great user interface could take off if marketed well and could be quite useful!

awake-maroon•1/16/24, 2:45 PM

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14E4QMkb_0AESYxc8WkfdgNAemI45tTJLuIUtNJ-zi7Q/edit?usp=sharing this is a spreadsheet model on roughly the same topic that your work reminded me of. Perhaps useful as a comparison. The numbers should be taken with a big pinch of salt, epistemic status: what I thought that roughly made sense at some point.

Google Docs

pdoom model

Summary

p(doom)
Intelligence-based AI takeover,10%,things taking
Position-based AI takeover,4%,things taking,AI/AIs have a position, which is mostly what gives them power. Takeover can be unipolar (likely with an org, though) or multipolar, using coordination.
Bad actor,4%
Complex world,1%,thing...

sacred-rose•12/16/24, 2:05 PM

Is there other calculators like this one? there has to be, right?
I cannot believe something as useful as this didn't exist before publicly. But I also had problems finding simple decision making EV calculators and ended up asking Claude to create one for me lol.
I would expect rationalists/ EAs would have good software tools alike accessible somewhere?

sacred-rose•12/16/24, 2:18 PM

anyways, thanks for this Will!

sacred-rose•12/16/24, 2:20 PM

It seems like that the Windows version doesn't a create node instruction.
And I'd also really appreciate having it not maximized and access to the model I created in json like in the web version. I'm not sure where it's being saved.

dual-salmonOP•12/16/24, 7:50 PM

Unless there is a bug I am unaware of, the Windows version stores models you create locally, which you can then access with the Load button. They are stored in your AppData folder -> LocalLow -> Zen Marmot Digital, LLC.

dual-salmonOP•12/16/24, 7:51 PM

What do you mean by node instruction? It's possible I made some updates and forgot to apply them to both the WebGL and Windows builds, so I'll be sure to check for this and other discrepancies.

dual-salmonOP•12/16/24, 7:54 PM

As far as other calculators like this one...yes, in the general sense of probability calculators, but I don't know of any others that are (1) totally open-ended in what you put into the model (many calculators build in a bunch of assumptions and content, then give the user dials to manipulate a few values) and, even more uncommon (2) digital-logic based (focusing on conjunctive and disjunctive probability)

Ddual-salmon What do you mean by node instruction? It's possible I made some updates and for...

sacred-rose•12/17/24, 2:36 AM

sorry, New Cell, not "Create Node"

p(doom) calculator

Similar Threads

Similar Threads

Similar Threads