So my launch finishe
[2023-06-02 07:00:45 AM] : So my launch finished this week. Unfortunately, because I've done it with someone else, I can't share as much as I'd like about how it went. I got the pricing "wrong" so it wasn't what we expected but still far from a failure thank goodness.
I shared my chart before and, being a data nerd that I am, have turned it into this little spreadsheet - the "Magic Product Launch Sales Expectation Setter..."
If you want to have a play you need to make your own copy of it. The idea though is that you put in your audience size, you put in your product price and it will tell you how many sales you'll make and how much revenue that will be in total.
Fun hey!
• There are high and low predictions, based off my experiences using different types of launch.
• This is based on real data that I've put together from a number of launches to my list - often on the same subject at different prices.
• It's only been tested on my list and only up to £400 product price. I guess the challenge for you is whether you can beat my numbers! :rolling_on_the_floor_laughing:
• Remember ALL models are wrong, but some are useful. Hopefully you find it useful...
If you do give it a go with your numbers let me know how it stacks up - if at all...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/103P70Hdg1xoLC5hyt5SS2HOWQtJkE46fnzFwGzv4puA/edit?usp=sharing
alex amy [File hidden by Slack limit]
3 Replies
[2023-06-02 07:17:04 AM] : This is pretty cool, huge fan. TY Samir
Im testing < 400pounds, curious how you came up with the 59 & diff params to get conversion rates, some sort of regression model?
I’ve only launched one product so far, my conversion rate is at 2%, need to get that higher!
[2023-06-02 07:19:11 AM] : What was your price at 2% conversion?
For me the sub £59 zone is a bit vague because I've not sold anything much there. I have done free stuff though so that is where the £0 conversion comes from and I'm reasonably confident in that one.
[2023-06-02 07:20:43 AM] : You can see in the chart how the model is derived. Its based on the conversion rate(s) you can see and I've just made two linear regression fits for above and below £59
[2023-06-02 07:22:18 AM] : price: 39; list size: ~ 6000
Ah I see, that’s pretty cool. Helpful for me, gives me a conversion rate to aim towards!
[2023-06-02 07:28:31 AM] : Oh nice. Yes hopefully something to look at. Of course, if I was in your shoes, I'd want to test a product in the £150-£250 range, just to see if it has the same trend as my audience. If you can hold the conversion rate then the efficiency (or total revenue) is much higher per person on your list - even though you're not going to make 200 sales you'll make more overall... assuming its the same.
[2023-06-02 07:30:31 AM] : That’s a really good point. I am reading thro one of your previous threads and its fascinating! Love the use of actual data price ranges and conversion rate to identify a suitable price range. I’ll definitely try out higher proce range next time! & I love charts, makes it really easy for me to understand!
[2023-06-02 07:36:45 AM] : Great. Yes its the way my mind works too. I have these kind of mental models in my head but then it gets too confusing so I need to get it out on a chart if I can. Glad its useful buddy and super keen to hear how your next launch goes at that higher price. You know I would never have had the guts to test out the £400 price point - it happened by accident / oversight - and so it was a case of seeing what I could learn from it. Clearly the model gets more sensitive the higher you price something - because each unit sale has a higher impact on overall revenue - but for me I hope I've got a little more predictability built in for next time I launch. Clearly I need to do a little catching up on my list size (3700) as ultimately that has the biggest impact. Fun stuff... now I must stop noodling about and prepare a live workshop I'm hosting later tonight! :rolling_on_the_floor_laughing:
[2023-06-02 07:37:44 AM] : :slightly_smiling_face: I’ll learn from your experience. Good luck with the workshop!