"Timelines" page on the website

Original message was deleted

hurt-tomato•11/23/23, 7:33 PM

EDIT: The original post was an idea to add a /timelines/timelines page that lists expert AGI timeline estimates

I'll help with this!

Original message was deleted

broad-emerald•11/23/23, 7:42 PM

A lot of the people here said "could be" in front of their number right? I think it's pretty important to include that in the quoted text to not misrepresent them

broad-emerald•11/23/23, 7:42 PM

For example OpenAI's real quote is:

Given the picture as we see it now, it’s conceivable that within the next ten years, AI systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains, and carry out as much productive activity as one of today’s largest corporations.

broad-emerald•11/23/23, 7:43 PM

A lot of them are actually pretty vague

broad-emerald•11/23/23, 7:43 PM

Like "conceivably" could mean anything from like 5% to like 50%

sacred-rose•1/15/24, 6:30 PM

I have the impression that a lot of important peopleon AI have short timelines but I'm actually not sure where did I get those impressions? I know Dario Amodei has, but who else? I was asked about particular people, not AI researchers or anything like that.

Ssacred-rose I have the impression that a lot of important peopleon AI have short timelines b...

full-green•1/15/24, 11:30 PM

Sam A says short timelines, slow takeoff: https://twitter.com/sama/status/1705752292484624863

Beyond Sam's public statement, key figures at OpenAI tend to shy away from giving their own predictions. But there are hints and vibes, which is potentially where some of your impression comes from.

As of 2020, "half the lab bets it is likely to happen within 15 years.": https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/
Superalignment aims to solve alignment within 4 years: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment

sacred-rose•1/16/24, 12:19 AM

Okay, but still not that specific

full-green•1/16/24, 12:39 AM

Yeah, I don't think we'll get specific timeline predictions from most people involved in the creation of AGI until it is imminent. It's socially risky for the predictor within their organization, and can also reflect on the organization itself.

sacred-rose•1/16/24, 1:05 AM

Yeah yeah

hurt-tomato•2/14/24, 11:52 AM

@Valentin Slepukhin had this same idea!

Hhurt-tomato @Valentin Slepukhin had this same idea!

spotty-amber•2/14/24, 11:55 AM

Same as what? - looks like I can’t see what is the message it links to originally

hurt-tomato•2/14/24, 12:02 PM

Yeah the idea was to have a page that lists expert AGI timeline estimates

hurt-tomato•2/14/24, 12:02 PM

Don't know why the original message was deleted

hurt-tomato•2/14/24, 1:10 PM

Made a rough first version: https://pauseai.info/timelines

"Timelines" page on the website

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