An Inconvenient Doom

I am preparing a documentary on x-risk. I am still at the planning phase, but I want to send out inquiries to possible interview partners

sad-indigoOP•8/8/23, 4:42 PM

This is the work-in-progress pitch paper v1 that is specifically aimed at AI expert interview partners. For the v2 I will probably remove page 2 and the Tescral interview question. What do you think?

An_Inconvenient_Doom_WiP_v1.pdf4.81MB

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 2:28 PM

This is v2. I think in combination with a nice mail this could be ready to send it out to potential interview partners.

An_Inconvenient_Doom_WiP_v2.pdf5.01MB

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 2:30 PM

My planned interview partners so far are:

Geoffrey Hinton
Max Tegmark
Yoshua Bengio
Stuart Russell
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Connor Leahy
Robert Miles

Further possible experts?
Catherine Olsson, Anthropic
Roger Grosse, Anthropic
Ajeya Cotra
Tristan Harris
Holden Karnofsky
Mo Gawdat?
Andrew Ng?

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 2:30 PM

THis is nice! Looks good. Perhaps additionally, also include a short piece of video. That way you can show off your skills. Maybe you already had that in mind though.

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 2:34 PM

A video would indeed be nice, but I don't have a preview for the documentary. And I don't know if my explanation video would help. I guess I have to point to older projects or my LinkedIn profile instead.

But honestly I hope, that they will not be so picky, since some of them have already participated in small podcasts.

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 2:37 PM

Yeah for them I'm pretty sure they will agree. For funder maybe a preview is convincing.

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 2:38 PM

You can also consider Kat Woods, prominent EA person, works at nonlinear.
She's good on camera https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhgFELxmh_A

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 2:40 PM

Katja Grace is a good thinker, supports pause https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5Lu01pEDWA

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:00 PM

Yes, I forgot about the people (especially women) that were suggested in my VAISU session:

Katja Grace
Beth Barnes
Vika Krakovna
Jade Leung
Amanda Askell

As well as yourself, Joep

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:01 PM

lol you want to interview me?

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:02 PM

It was suggested and I think it is a good idea! In the end the audience needs some hope and something to do

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:02 PM

That's where you come in!

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:02 PM

not sure if I'm a source of hope though haha

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:02 PM

I'm a mega doomer

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:02 PM

But yeah still, there is a chance we'll make it, if we fight like crazy

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:07 PM

That's what I hoped for!

The question now is: Does anybody have any direct contact to any of these people?

Geoffrey Hinton
Max Tegmark
Yoshua Bengio
Stuart Russell
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Connor Leahy

Katja Grace
Beth Barnes
Vika Krakovna
Jade Leung
Amanda Askell

Catherine Olsson, Anthropic
Roger Grosse, Anthropic
Ajeya Cotra
Tristan Harris
Holden Karnofsky
Mo Gawdat?
Andrew Ng?

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:08 PM

Minus Robert Miles – he was present at the VAISU session and I wrote him directly

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:09 PM

I can probably find out most of their contact info (I already have some email addresses), but an introduction through a third party is always better.

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:09 PM

I can introduce you to connor, and a co-worker of Tristan Harris

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:11 PM

Especially Connor would be great, since there is no public contact info available. I tried to reach him on LinkedIn and LessWrong – but he probably checks his messages there as often as I do

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:16 PM

Kat Woods really is very charismatic. But is she an AI expert?

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:17 PM

Don't think so

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:17 PM

I've sent messages to Connor and Eliezer

sad-indigoOP•8/10/23, 3:18 PM

Great, thanks!

hurt-tomato•8/10/23, 3:19 PM

Probably best to write to media@intelligence.org for eliezer though

moderate-tomato•8/10/23, 10:41 PM

Have you made any previous documentaries or similar works? Would love to see them. If I think you'd be good for this, I can give you the contact details of some of the individuals you want to interview, and also put you in touch with others in the ecosystem who do video-editing/etc.

moderate-tomato•8/10/23, 10:42 PM

I think a good documentary could be very important. Somewhat hesitant about the title. It's a bit crank, but also attention-grabbing

moderate-tomato•8/10/23, 10:43 PM

Like, I'm not sure if someone like Hinton would want his name attached to something with 'Doom' in the name

sad-indigoOP•8/13/23, 10:10 PM

I get what you mean with Hinton and doom - the title is not 100% set in stone.

I didn't do a feature-length documentary before (fwiw the guy who did "An Inconvenient Truth" even only made fiction before), but I have 15 years of experience in film making.

I did a self-produced feature film back in 2011 that sold internationally, I did several short 360-degree-video historical documentaries for the big public broadcaster ZDF in Germany, I regularly conduct interviews for education topics and I did a drama series for peacebuilding in Yemen.

Have a look at my LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/niki-drozdowski-25877857/ or Google me. There should also be some stuff on IMDb, but I really suck at self promotion. I had the domain drozdowski.de for years and still haven't put anything up there.

If you could put me in contact with some of the interview partners, that would be great.

I have the post production already planned (if I get German funding, I have to spend a lot of it in Germany) so I don't have a need for editors.

What I could indeed use is people for the actual filming of the interviews: camera operator, sound, light etc. In principle I can do all of that by myself, but of course it will take longer and also take away my focus from the interview.

If I get proper funding I can pay for the crew, but if I don't some help would be great. Even if it is just volunteers without a film background (I could do a crash course).

sacred-rose•8/28/23, 4:23 PM

I think the title is quite great, although maybe someone has a better idea

sacred-rose•8/28/23, 4:23 PM

where are you planning to get funding from? maybe you could make a patreon or other crowdfunding website project?

sacred-rose•8/29/23, 12:00 PM

@Niki Drozdowski in the PDF you say "2023 will be" but by the time you release the documentary, won't the year be over?

sacred-rose•8/29/23, 12:02 PM

I hope that when you explain the concepts, you put in some examples of things that happened demonstrating them, to make them more "real" and intuitive to the audience

sacred-rose•8/29/23, 12:17 PM

@Niki Drozdowski if you want to release the documentary on YT for free but still want it to be credible, wouldn't it be best to release it on a channel of a reputable media organization, like idk PBS, CBS, DW News or w/e

sacred-rose•8/29/23, 12:19 PM

that way you can have both credibility and free and wide distribution

Ssacred-rose @Niki Drozdowski in the PDF you say "2023 will be" but by the time you release t...

sad-indigoOP•8/29/23, 1:42 PM

True, but I created this document only to convince interview partners. It explains way too little for the general public. I am in the process of writing a treatment for a funding application that will be longer and characterizes the project in more detail.

I will definitely do a kickstarter campaign and also try different funding avenues: I contacted the German Robert Bosch foundation and will participate in EAGx in Berlin to maybe get some EA funding. But I actually want to limit the latter to a minimum to avoid any conflict-of-interest attack points for critics.

Regarding the YouTube release: That is true in principle, but these channels would need to broadcast the doc as well, because I don't think they do a lot of online-only content. And then we are back in to international sales territory and which channel to choose.

I would have to talk to a sales agent and to someone in marketing anyway about this, but first I need something to show.

sacred-rose•8/29/23, 2:02 PM

do you think it would be more difficult to release your documentary on a media organization's youtube channel than on a streaming platform like Netflix?

sacred-rose•8/29/23, 2:02 PM

I think releasing it for free on youtube would be great for its reach, which is important for a documentary like this

sad-indigoOP•8/29/23, 2:48 PM

I agree that free access is important, but that doesn't count for much, if you don't put any marketing in. Unless the film is so controversial and well covered by international press, that everybody looks it up.

Therefore the ideal avenue would probably be a Netflix release (The Social Dilemma had like 125 mio. views). Or a theatric release, if the local distributors put in some marketing budget.

It also depends where the budget comes from. The film funding I am applying for aims at a theatrical release for example. And since it's German taxpayer money they prohibit a Netflix release for 120 days after the theatrical release and a TV/free release for 12 month.

If you think back at the big society-changing documentaries, none of them was a free release (ok, there was no YouTube when "An Inconvenient Truth" came out). I might be wrong – if you know any examples of the contrary please let me know.

sad-indigoOP•10/11/23, 3:05 PM

Hey everyone! A bit of an update:

1. I have interview confirmation from Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, Connor Leahy, Curtis Huebner, Koen Holtman, Ajeya Cotra (90%) and the one and only @Joep Meindertsma . Additionally from the social psychologist Caroline Hickman who I gave nightmares with my explanation of AI.
2. I presented the project at VAISU and EAGx Berlin and was received very positively.
3. I was able to raise my starting budget to 40.000 € through a donor from a big tech company who wants to remain anonymous. Furthermore I applied for German film funding (decision Nov. 6th) and will launch a kickstarter campaign soon.
4. I created a preliminary website where you can sign up for the newsletter: https://www.aninconvenientdoom.com/newsletter (work-in-progress)

As mentioned my next step will be the kickstarter campaign and then the UK summit (I am in contact with Ian Hogarth who is understandably too busy - but maybe he will agree to an interview after the summit).

I am also still gathering interview partners. If anyone has a direct contact to Yoshua Bengio that would be great, since my first try ended with his assistant who replied with a cookie-cutter decline.

Also: I know that Joseph Gordon Lewitt is EA (adjacent) and I remember somebody mentioning that somebody here has contact to him. I think he could be a great presenter for the movie or at least connect me to other possible presenters.

That's all for know – I just wanted to keep you in the loop!

full-green•10/19/23, 12:03 PM

@Niki Drozdowski Congrats on the funding.

sacred-rose•10/19/23, 2:25 PM

@Niki Drozdowski have you thought about contacting Bengio through Paul Christiano, who's also on the UK frontier AI taskforce

sad-indigoOP•10/19/23, 2:42 PM

Unfortunately Paul Christiano declined already in September because of a lack of time. I will approach him again soon and offer him a later shooting date. And Bengio declined yesterday unfortunately. I asked him for a reason and a possible remedy, but have not heard back from him yet.

Ssad-indigo Unfortunately Paul Christiano declined already in September because of a lack of...

sacred-rose•10/19/23, 4:00 PM

Good to know - still, if you manage to get for example Hinton or Russell or Tegmark to agree, it should be easy to get Bengio and other big names

sad-indigoOP•10/19/23, 4:33 PM

True. Hinton also already declined - but literally 5 min. after I sent the mail, so he didn’t even read everything. I will try again later with him. I wrote Russell’s assistant but didn’t hear back, so I wrote him directly. Also nothing so far (but only 2 days ago) Tegmark seems to be interested but it too busy to reply right now. Keep your fingers crossed!

Ssad-indigo True. Hinton also already declined - but literally 5 min. after I sent the mail,...

sacred-rose•10/19/23, 4:40 PM

That's great - getting some big names should make it easier to get others on board. May I suggest Chris Olah?

Ssad-indigo My planned interview partners so far are: Geoffrey Hinton Max Tegmark Yoshua Be...

spotty-amber•10/19/23, 9:39 PM

Dr Roman Yampolskiy and Paul Christiano would be good, imo

Ssad-indigo Especially Connor would be great, since there is no public contact info availabl...

spotty-amber•10/19/23, 9:40 PM

You can dm him on discord

Hhurt-tomato Probably best to write to media@intelligence.org for eliezer though

spotty-amber•10/19/23, 9:41 PM

You can private message him on effectivealtruism forum or dm him on twitter