Has anyone seen "Failed to determine file size" when using Media Transform? We started getting this

Has anyone seen "Failed to determine file size" when using Media Transform? We started getting this error for 100% of our Azure Blob Storage videos, same video uploaded to R2 works fine, video is publicly accessible, configuration worked a couple months ago and just started failing a few weeks ago. Images in the same blob store transform just fine.

I'm totally stumped, no idea how to even start debugging.
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